Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jung hit sacrifice fly to left, Semien scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Semien doubled to left, Taveras scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6García homered to center (433 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3García homered to right (334 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Taveras doubled to center, Garver scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Berti homered to left (392 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Seager homered to right (429 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bell doubled to center, Arraez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +58 Elo | TEX 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 37–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.