Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tim AndersonBatting1-4
- Jesse ScholtensPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7García homered to left center (418 feet).0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Garver homered to center (411 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Fair odds
- TEX -131
- CHW +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.8 – 5.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +81 Elo | TEX 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–35 | Road vs home | 34–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.