Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garver homered to center (420 feet), Heim scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Maldonado homered to left center (393 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Tucker homered to right center (364 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6García grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Semien scored, Lowe safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Peña.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Julks hit sacrifice fly to left, J. Abreu scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2McCormick doubled to center, Bregman scored, J. Abreu to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | TEX: Yerry Rodriguez (no track record yet) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 26–2214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–5 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.