Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting2-3, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz singled to right, Tucker scored, McCormick to second.9–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–9
- 7McCormick homered to left center (388 feet), Tucker scored and J. Abreu scored.9–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–9
- 7Taveras hit sacrifice fly to center, Jung scored, Heim to third.9–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Garver walked, Lowe scored, Heim to second, Jung to third.8–6
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 48–6
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 7Heim walked, Jankowski scored, Jung to second, Lowe to third.7–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 47–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Tucker scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 5McCormick hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored, Tucker to third.6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4J. Smith homered to right center (422 feet).6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 2Lowe singled to center, J. Smith scored, Jankowski to third.5–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 2Jankowski reached on infield single to first, Taveras scored, J. Smith to second.4–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 2Miller scored on error, J. Smith safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, Taveras safe at third on error.3–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +11 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +6 Elo | TEX 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 25–2216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.