Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Tim AndersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor out at second.2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Jiménez singled to left, Robert Jr. scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Robert Jr. singled to left, Remillard scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Freeman singled to right, Bell scored, Brennan to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Vaughn homered to left center (395 feet), Burger scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Moncada singled to center, Grandal scored and Remillard scored, Anderson thrown out at third.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Anderson homered to left (429 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +11 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 22–2825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–5 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.