Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bo Naylor singled to right, Arias scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7J. Naylor doubled to shortstop, Giménez scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Burger homered to left center (423 feet), Grandal scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Burger homered to right (358 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Brennan singled to right, J. Naylor scored on error, Brennan safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Colás, Bell safe at third on error.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3J. Naylor doubled to right, Giménez scored and Kwan scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Giménez doubled to right, Kwan scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +8 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +17 Elo | CLE 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 21–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–4 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.