Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nicky LopezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramírez singled to center, Rosario scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Bo Naylor homered to center (397 feet), Straw scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Brennan singled to center, Bell scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Lopez singled to left, Massey scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bo Naylor homered to right center (430 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Fair odds
- CLE -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −10 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +76 Elo | CLE 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–37 | Road vs home | 26–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 3–5 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.