Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh BellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell homered to left (401 feet).5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Triolo singled to left, Choi scored and Santana scored, Davis to second.4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Choi singled to right, Reynolds scored and Rodríguez scored, Santana to third.4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Gonzales scored, Joe out at second, Rodríguez to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Suwinski doubled to right, Triolo scored, Gonzales to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Gonzales reached on infield single to second, Davis scored, Triolo to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Bell singled to center, Rosario scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.9 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 22–2624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.