Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Naylor homered to right (386 feet), Ramírez scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 6Joe homered to center (419 feet).8–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 28–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 18–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 4J. Naylor grounded out to second, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Rosario to third.8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Bell homered to right (391 feet), Giménez scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 1Straw singled to right, Bell scored on error, Straw safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Davis.5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1J. Naylor homered to right center (404 feet), Rosario scored and Ramírez scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Rosario singled to right, Kwan scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- CLE +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 22–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.