Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Straw reached on infield single to first, Freeman scored, Bell to second, Giménez to third.11–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 311–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 211–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 8Kwan singled to left, Bell scored, Straw to third.10–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 7J. Naylor homered to left center (425 feet), Kwan scored.9–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 6Giménez homered to right (363 feet), J. Naylor scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6J. Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 6Ramírez doubled to right, Rosario scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Bo Naylor doubled to center, Brennan scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Rosario homered to center (408 feet), Kwan scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | CLE: Xzavion Curry (no track record yet) · PIT: Quinn Priester (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 22–2422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.