Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting4-5
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stott homered to right (385 feet).5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Realmuto homered to left (413 feet), Harper scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6J. Naylor reached on infield single to second, Kwan scored, Rosario to second.2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Rosario singled to left, Straw scored, Kwan to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Schwarber walked, Stott scored, Cave to second, Marsh to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 42–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Fry grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ramírez scored, Bell out at second.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Kwan singled to right, Fry scored, Arias to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Castellanos grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Fry reached on infield single to shortstop, J. Naylor scored, Bell to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Bell doubled to left, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -106
- PHI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +8 Elo | CLE 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 24–2217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.