Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stanton homered to left center (410 feet), McKinney scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7LeMahieu homered to right center (402 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Garcia singled to center, Olivares scored, Pratto to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Torres hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pratto homered to right (334 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Stanton singled to left, McKinney scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Fair odds
- NYY -138
- KC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +94 Elo | NYY 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–35 | Road vs home | 29–2310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.