New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Franchy CorderoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ward hit a ground rule double, Neto scored, Ohtani to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Cordero homered to center (429 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Higashioka singled to left, Cordero scored, Bader to second.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Stanton homered to right center (369 feet).1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Escobar grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ward scored, Moniak out at second.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Moniak singled to right, Ohtani scored, Ward to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Rengifo homered to left center (418 feet), Renfroe scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Ward homered to left (405 feet), Ohtani scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- NYY +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +7 Elo | LAA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 26–2211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–3 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.