New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stefanic singled to left, Wallach scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Ohtani homered to center (403 feet), Escobar scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Peraza scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Thaiss homered to center (438 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Cabrera hit a ground rule double, Bader scored and Volpe scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- NYY +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | −8 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +23 Elo | LAA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 24–2216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–1 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.