New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Moniak reached on infield single to first, Ohtani scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Ohtani tripled to right, Neto scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Stefanic scored, Ohtani to second, Neto to third on Germán wild pitch.1–3
- 3Stefanic scored on Germán wild pitch, Ohtani to second on wild pitch by Germán, Neto to third on wild pitch by Germán.1–3
- 3Torres homered to left (404 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Moniak homered to right (413 feet), Neto scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Fair odds
- LAA -107
- NYY +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +4 Elo | LAA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 25–2215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.