Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Billy McKinneyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Massey homered to right (377 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Torres homered to right center (383 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4McKinney homered to right center (361 feet), LeMahieu scored and Volpe scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Massey homered to right (416 feet), Garcia scored and Melendez scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Cordero homered to right (373 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Fair odds
- NYY -138
- KC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +103 Elo | NYY 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–34 | Road vs home | 28–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.