Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Isbel homered to right center (403 feet).5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 9Fermin homered to left (344 feet).4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Higashioka hit sacrifice fly to left, McKinney scored, Peraza to third.3–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Peraza reached on infield single to first, LeMahieu scored on throwing error by first baseman Pratto and Rizzo scored, Peraza to second, McKinney safe at third on error.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Massey homered to right center (388 feet), Melendez scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Perez homered to right (381 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Rizzo homered to right center (364 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Bader singled to center, Rizzo scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Fair odds
- NYY -137
- KC +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −21 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +81 Elo | NYY 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–36 | Road vs home | 30–239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–2 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.