Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kwan singled to center, Brennan scored, Bo Naylor to second.8–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 10Bohm singled to right, Harper scored and Stott scored.8–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 10Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.6–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 10Harper singled to center, Rojas scored, Turner to third.5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Fry homered to left (368 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Realmuto scored on error, Marsh safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Harper grounded out to first, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Schwarber reached on infield single to first, Marsh scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Ramírez grounded out to first, Gallagher scored, Kwan to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Giménez homered to right center (388 feet).1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 26–2214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.