Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Myles StrawBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Straw singled to center, Fry scored and Brennan scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 7Garcia homered to right (349 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Bell singled to center, Rosario scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6Perez homered to left center (420 feet), Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Olivares doubled to center, Duffy scored and Isbel scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Fair odds
- CLE -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +8 | KC: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +80 Elo | CLE 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–37 | Road vs home | 26–2317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 2–5 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.