Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vaughn reached on infield single to first, Robert Jr. scored, Jiménez to second.7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Moncada hit sacrifice fly to right, Anderson scored, Robert Jr. to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Swanson singled to left, Happ scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Hoerner homered to left (364 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Vaughn grounded out to first, Jiménez scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Swanson homered to left center (367 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Morel homered to center (400 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Swanson homered to left (389 feet), Suzuki scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Fair odds
- CHW -103
- CHC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +6 Elo | CHC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 21–2525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.