Chicago White Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Omar NarvaezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso singled to right, Nimmo scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 6Andrus tripled to center, Grandal scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Colás hit sacrifice fly to left, Burger scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Grandal doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored and Jiménez scored, Burger to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Narváez homered to right center (399 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Andrus hit sacrifice fly to center, Remillard scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored, Robert Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Fair odds
- NYM -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 3019–32 | Road vs home | 23–2116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–2 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.