Chicago White Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yasmani GrandalBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi singled to center, Grandal scored, Andrus to third.10–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–11
- 7Grandal scored, Pérez to second on passed ball by Alvarez, Remillard to third on passed ball by Alvarez.9–11
- 7Grandal scored, Pérez to second on passed ball by Alvarez, Remillard to third on passed ball by Alvarez.9–11
- 7Grandal singled to right, Vaughn scored and Burger scored.8–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 7Burger doubled to center, Benintendi scored and Anderson scored, Vaughn to third.6–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–11
- 6Alvarez homered to center (421 feet), McNeil scored.4–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–9
- 6McNeil singled to right, Pham scored.4–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 5Burger doubled to left, Anderson scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 5Vaughn grounded out to shortstop, Benintendi scored, Anderson to third.3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4McNeil singled to left, Pham scored, Alonso to third.2–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Stewart homered to right center (435 feet).2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 3Anderson doubled to right, Benintendi scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 2Lindor doubled to right, Nimmo scored.1–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Grandal homered to right center (413 feet).1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3019–30 | Road vs home | 21–2119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.