Chicago White Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left center (405 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Nimmo doubled to left, Baty scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Guillorme hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Baty grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McNeil scored, Vogelbach out at second, Alvarez to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Alvarez singled to right, Alonso scored, McNeil to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Baty homered to center (412 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Fair odds
- NYM -116
- CHW +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −4 | CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +34 Elo | NYM 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 3019–31 | Road vs home | 22–2119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.