Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Zach RemillardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Jeffers singled to right, Farmer scored, Buxton to third.4–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 10Farmer hit sacrifice fly to right, Gallo scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Anderson doubled to center, Remillard scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Kirilloff doubled to left, Castro scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Correa hit sacrifice fly to left, Jeffers scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Castro doubled to left, Wallner scored, Jeffers to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Remillard singled to left, Colás scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Remillard homered to left center (418 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Jiménez homered to center (414 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +69 Elo | MIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–34 | Road vs home | 28–2210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.