Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kirilloff doubled to center, Julien scored and Correa scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Grandal homered to right (394 feet), Jiménez scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Anderson singled to right, Andrus scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Jeffers homered to center (425 feet).1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Buxton homered to left (354 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 1Buxton homered to center (427 feet), Kepler scored and Wallner scored.1–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 1Kirilloff homered to right center (396 feet), Julien scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Benintendi homered to right center (396 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −8 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–32 | Road vs home | 26–2212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.