Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yasmani GrandalBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taylor singled to center, Farmer scored, Vázquez to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Vázquez doubled to left, Buxton scored, Farmer to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Correa doubled to center, Vázquez scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Grandal singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Anderson stole home, Robert Jr. stole second.1–0
- 3Anderson stole home, Robert Jr. stole second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +43 Elo | MIN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–33 | Road vs home | 27–2211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.