St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suzuki singled to left, Happ scored, Bellinger to second.6–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 36–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 6Bellinger singled to right, Hoerner scored and Tauchman scored, Happ to third.6–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 6Nootbaar scored on Palencia wild pitch, Gorman to second on wild pitch by Palencia, Goldschmidt to third on wild pitch by Palencia.6–5
- 6Nootbaar scored on Palencia wild pitch, Gorman to second on wild pitch by Palencia, Goldschmidt to third on wild pitch by Palencia.6–5
- 5Suzuki singled to center, Happ scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Bellinger grounded out to second, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Contreras doubled to center, Arenado scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Gorman homered to right center (445 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Swanson singled to center, Happ scored, Bellinger to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Bellinger singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- STL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −8 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Michael Fulmer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +11 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 25–2622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 4–3 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.