St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Morel grounded out to shortstop, Gomes scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5DeJong homered to right (367 feet), Walker scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 4Gomes tripled to right, Suzuki scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Arenado doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored and Nootbaar scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Walker homered to left center (398 feet), O'Neill scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Contreras doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 24–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–2 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.