St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arenado singled to center, Fermín scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Bellinger homered to right (400 feet), Tauchman scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Tauchman doubled to left, Amaya scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Mastrobuoni homered to right center (411 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Knizner grounded out to third, O'Neill scored, DeJong to second, Walker to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +17 Elo | CHC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 24–2622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 4–2 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.