St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carlson singled to center, O'Neill scored, Carlson to second.2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Carlson singled to right, Burleson scored, Herrera to second.1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 3Mancini doubled to left, Gomes scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Gomes doubled to left, Swanson scored and Happ scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Swanson singled to center, Suzuki scored, Happ to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Wisdom scored, Suzuki to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Bellinger homered to center (403 feet), Happ scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- STL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +12 Elo | CHC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 26–2621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 4–4 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.