Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger homered to right (421 feet).10–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 39–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 29–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 8Happ homered to center (420 feet).9–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–7
- 5Hoerner walked, Mastrobuoni scored, Tauchman to second, Gomes to third.8–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 48–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 5Tauchman walked, Morel scored, Gomes to second, Mastrobuoni to third.7–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 47–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 5Mastrobuoni struck out, Suzuki scored, Mastrobuoni to first, Morel to third on Kelly wild pitch.6–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging6–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Morel singled to left, Happ scored and Hoerner scored, Suzuki to second, Suzuki safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Benintendi.5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 5Happ singled to left, Tauchman scored, Hoerner to second.3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Jiménez doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Anderson scored, Robert Jr. to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Colás scored, Anderson to second, Benintendi to third.2–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- CHW +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −18 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +37 Elo | CHC 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 21–2626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.