Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-4
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien walked, Jung scored, Taveras to second, Grossman to third.1–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 41–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 30–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Machado singled to right, Kim scored and Sánchez scored, Machado out at second on runner's fielder's choice, Tatis Jr. to third.0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Tatis Jr. singled to right, Campusano scored, Kim to second, Sánchez to third.0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 6Sánchez doubled to center, Cronenworth scored, Campusano to third.0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to right center (394 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Soto singled to center, Kim scored, Soto to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +8 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 24–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.