Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto walked, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second, Campusano to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 43–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 9Santana homered to right center (429 feet).3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Reynolds homered to left center (385 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Machado doubled to left, Kim scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Choi homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +58 Elo | SD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 3021–31 | Road vs home | 24–2422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 4–1 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.