Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santana doubled to center, McCutchen scored and Hedges scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 7Peguero to home on throwing error by catcher Thaiss.3–7
- 7Peguero to home on throwing error by catcher Thaiss.3–7
- 7Peguero doubled to right, Gonzales scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 6Rengifo homered to left (368 feet).1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Thaiss hit sacrifice fly to center, Moniak scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Ward singled to right, Ohtani scored, Moniak to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Rengifo homered to center (386 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Velazquez homered to right (368 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Escobar doubled to right, Moustakas scored, Thaiss to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Ohtani homered to center (410 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Reynolds homered to center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.6 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +43 Elo | LAA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 28–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.