Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Davis homered to right center (410 feet).5–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Ward homered to left (387 feet), Ohtani scored.4–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Neto homered to left center (436 feet).4–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Suwinski homered to right (439 feet), Gonzales scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Cabbage homered to center (448 feet).2–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Moustakas homered to right center (403 feet), Moniak scored and Ward scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Moniak doubled to right, Ohtani scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Davis homered to left center (410 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Choi homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +51 Elo | LAA 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 27–2210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.