Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz homered to left (407 feet), McCormick scored.13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–5
- 5García homered to left center (448 feet), Semien scored, Duran scored and Lowe scored.13–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 5Lowe walked, Taveras scored, Duran to second, Semien to third.9–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 49–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 38–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Taveras singled to left, Grossman scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 5Huff homered to left center (443 feet).7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Semien homered to left center (360 feet), Taveras scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Taveras singled to right, Garver scored and Grossman scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Lowe homered to right center (378 feet), Semien scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Bregman homered to left (390 feet), Peña scored and Tucker scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 27–2213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–6 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.