Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to left, Grisham scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Grossman.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Semien singled to center, Garver scored and Duran scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Sánchez homered to center (407 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Soto doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Sánchez homered to left (399 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Taveras reached on infield single to pitcher, Duran scored on throwing error by pitcher Snell.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Kim scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- TEX +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +9 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 26–2520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–2 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.