Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Tim AndersonBatting1-4
- Michael KopechPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez homered to right (348 feet), Giménez scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Ramírez homered to right (418 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Kwan homered to right (369 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Giménez walked, Gonzalez scored, Kwan to second, Gallagher to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -103
- CLE +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +3 Elo | CLE 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 23–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–6 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.