Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting4-6, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Sánchez singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored, Burger to second, García to third.8–9
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–9
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–8
- 11Bell singled to center, Stallings scored.8–8
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–8
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 18–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 11Bohm singled to right, Castro scored.8–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 27–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 17–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 10Berti hit sacrifice fly to right, Burger scored.7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10García grounded out to second, Chisholm Jr. scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 10Marsh homered to center (423 feet), Turner scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Soler homered to center (404 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Berti grounded out to shortstop, García scored, Sánchez to second, Burger to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Sánchez walked, Bell scored, Burger to second, García to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 45–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Chisholm Jr. homered to right (424 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +7 Elo | PHI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 33–236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.