Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Johnny CuetoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Short doubled to left, Rogers scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Greene homered to left (372 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Baddoo homered to left center (394 feet), Báez scored and Cabrera scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Fair odds
- MIA -120
- DET +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | DET: Beau Brieske (no track record yet) · MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +35 Elo | MIA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 32–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.