Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ibañez singled to center, Torkelson scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Wendle sacrificed into double play, center to second to first, Gurriel scored, Berti thrown out at first.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Berti singled to right, Hampson scored, Gurriel to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Maton doubled to center, McKinstry scored and Báez scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Torkelson singled to left, Maton scored, Greene to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Báez scored on error, Cabrera safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Segura, Cabrera safe at second on error.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3De La Cruz doubled to left, Soler scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Segura reached on infield single to third, Berti scored, Wendle to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +45 Elo | MIA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 31–205th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.