Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arraez singled to center, Berti scored, Arraez to second.7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5De La Cruz homered to left center (410 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Arraez hit a ground rule double, Berti scored, Stallings to third.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Myers hit sacrifice fly to left, Gurriel scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Stallings singled to left, Hampson scored, Berti to second, Gurriel to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Siri singled to right, J. Lowe scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Stallings doubled to left, Berti scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Berti singled to center, Gurriel scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- MIA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +78 Elo | TB 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 37–181st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.