Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santander singled to right, Cowser scored, Henderson to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6O'Hearn homered to left (331 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Díaz homered to left center (424 feet), Bethancourt scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4B. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ramírez scored, Arozarena out at second.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Henderson homered to center (446 feet), Frazier scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Rutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −19 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–18 | Road vs home | 36–171st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 5–3 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.