Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hearn singled to right, Frazier scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 8Arozarena singled to left, Bruján scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 8Franco grounded out to second, Margot scored, Bruján to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Automatic Strike 15–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Paredes singled to center, Arozarena scored, B. Lowe to second.5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Franco singled to center, J. Lowe scored and Siri scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 4Hays doubled to right, Mateo scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Mateo doubled to left, McCann scored and Urías scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -115
- BAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +13 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–18 | Road vs home | 36–161st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–3 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.