Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cowser hit sacrifice fly to left, Hicks scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Díaz doubled to center, Bethancourt scored and Walls scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Hicks singled to left, Hicks to second, Santander scored on error by catcher Mejía.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to left, Rutschman scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Rutschman singled to right, Henderson scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Mejía singled to center, J. Lowe scored, Walls to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -113
- BAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–17 | Road vs home | 35–151st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.