Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Renfroe singled to center, Ward scored, Thaiss to second.11–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–4
- 9Thaiss singled to right, Moniak scored and Stefanic scored, Ward to third.10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8McKinstry singled to center, Báez scored, Rogers thrown out at third.8–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7McKinstry scored on error, Vierling safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Neto.8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 6Renfroe homered to left (395 feet).8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Ohtani homered to center (435 feet).7–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Escobar homered to right (350 feet).6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Carpenter singled to right, Vierling scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 25–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −17 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +30 Elo | LAA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 22–2927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.