Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-3
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ward homered to right center (370 feet).6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Ward homered to left center (376 feet), Moniak scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Cabbage singled to right, Moustakas scored and Renfroe scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Cabbage hit sacrifice fly to left, Moustakas scored, Renfroe to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- LAA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +18 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 22–2826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.