Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike MoustakasBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Moniak doubled to right, Moustakas scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 9Torkelson hit a ground rule double, Greene scored and Rogers scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Greene doubled to right, Maton scored, Rogers to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Rogers singled to center, Báez scored, Maton to second.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Ward singled to left, Rengifo scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Rengifo tripled to right, Velazquez scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Rogers homered to left.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Escobar singled to left, Ohtani scored, Moustakas to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Ward hit sacrifice fly to left, Velazquez scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Báez singled to right, Vierling scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Moustakas doubled to right, Ohtani scored and Rengifo scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- LAA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +6 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 22–2727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.