Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm singled to right, Rojas scored, Schwarber to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Rojas doubled to left, Marsh scored and Turner scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Soler homered to left center (415 feet), Arraez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -108
- PHI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 33–214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.