Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm singled to left, Stott scored, Realmuto to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Stott doubled to right, Harper scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8O'Hearn homered to right center (386 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Harper homered to right center (396 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Rojas singled to center, Bohm scored, Marsh to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Frazier doubled to right, Mountcastle scored, Frazier out stretching at third.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Hays doubled to left, Mountcastle scored, Frazier to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +13 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–18 | Road vs home | 26–2010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.